If population health trends in Quebec remain the same, we estimate that nursing home care needs will increase 2.6-fold between 2010 and 2050. The number of people in nursing homes will thus increase to about 196,100 in 2050, and the related costs to $8.4 billion (in 2010 dollars, assuming fixed structural costs). This represents an increase of $5.2 billion compared to 2010. If the number of places subsidized by the Quebec government (45,000 in 2012) remains unchanged, many people requiring nursing home care will have to turn to the private sector, which currently costs between $850 and $6,000 monthly; or they could end up hospitalized, which would increase pressures on the health care system.
Utilisation et coût de l’hébergement avec soins de longue durée au Québec, 2010 à 2050*