Using a simulation tool, we analyze four scenarios that allow to us to measure the effects over 20 years of 1) maintaining the budget balance for 4 years, and 2) a growth in the Canada Health Transfer (CHT) at its historical pace. In the reference scenario, which assumes structural expenditure growth rates consistent with the pre-budgetary rigour period and a CHT increasing at a slower pace than in the past, Quebec public expenditures should increase by G$166.6 by 2035, while revenue will only increase by G$106. Furthermore, a CHT growing at 6% annually would not be enough to meet budget balance and public debt objectives. Additional efforts to limit spending or enhance revenue will be required to meet these targets.
Les effets de l’équilibre budgétaire et du transfert canadien en santé sur les finances publiques du Québec