2015

Compliance, Informality and contributive pensions

We consider a model in which agents have the possibility of hiding some of their earnings in order to avoid taxation. Taxes only finance a pension system, which includes a contributory and a universal component. Without non-compliance costs, agents are indifferent to the tax rate as in response they can adjust their level of compliance; the pension system must be at least partially contributory in order to increase tax compliance and, thus, the tax base.

Changements démographiques au Québec: vers une décroissance de l’emploi d’ici 2050?*

Using a model that simulates demography and socio-economic behaviours at the individual level, we project the level of employment for Quebec until 2050. The results are contrasted with projections carried out by the Régie des rentes du Québec in 2013, as well as with projections that hold education levels and employment behaviours constant. Despite the aging of the population, which will bring about a shrinking of the working-age population, recent labour market behaviours suggest that Quebec will experience increased employment rates, especially among older workers.

Labor Market Policies and Self-Employment Transitions of Older Workers

We study transitions in and out of self-employment of older individuals using internationally comparable survey data from 13 OECD countries. We examine the influence on self-employment transitions of several labor market policies and institutional factors, as well as individual characteristics like physical and mental health. Self-employment among older individuals is strongly affected by government policies: larger expenditures on employment incentives impact it positively, while the opposite is true for expenditures on early retirement and unemployment benefits.

Distributional Effects of Social Security Reforms: the Case of France

This paper quantifies the long-run distributional impact of two Social Security reforms: modifying the parameters of a defined benefit (DB) plan (“Ayrault’s reform” in France) and switching to a notional defined contribution (NDC) plan (“Italian reform”). For different reasons, low-skilled workers are the main losers with both reforms. Under Ayrault’s reform they delay retirement by 2 years, while in switching to a NDC scheme their pensions fall substantially. The switch from a DB to a NDC plan yields substantial welfare losses; pensions fall drastically, and individuals save more.

Intertemporal pro-poorness

The impact of growth on poverty is better understood when taking into account income dynamics. We use an ‘intertemporal pro-poorness’ formulation that accounts separately for the benefit of “mobility as equalizer” and the social variability cost of poverty transiency. Several decompositions are proposed to measure the importance of each of these impacts of growth on the pro-poorness of distributional changes. The framework is applied to panel data on 23 European countries drawn from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) survey.

 

The Concentration of Hospital-Based Medical Spending: Evidence from Canada*

We analyze hospital-based medical spending using longitudinal administrative data from the province of Quebec, Canada. We document how medical spending is concentrated cross-sectionally, over time and near the end of life. Average expenditures rise rapidly with age starting around 50 y.o., and are concentrated among a few high-cost users (e.g. the top 1% of individuals account for 55% of spending).

Utilisation et coût de l’hébergement avec soins de longue durée au Québec, 2010 à 2050*

If population health trends in Quebec remain the same, we estimate that nursing home care needs will increase 2.6-fold between 2010 and 2050. The number of people in nursing homes will thus increase to about 196,100 in 2050, and the related costs to $8.4 billion (in 2010 dollars, assuming fixed structural costs). This represents an increase of $5.2 billion compared to 2010.

Employer downsizing and older workers’ health

We estimate the effects of employer downsizing on older workers’ health outcomes using different approaches, most of which yield results suggesting that downsizing increases the probability that older workers rate their health as fair or poor; increases the risk of showing symptoms of clinical depression; increases the risk of being diagnosed with stroke, arthritis, and psychiatric or emotional problems; and increases the risk of showing high levels of inflammation.

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