2014

Une analyse économique de propositions visant à bonifier la couverture du risque de longévité*

Simulation methods are used to analyze the impacts of recently proposed reforms to cover longevity risk: a key proposal of the D’Amours committee (the longevity pension); a proposal by Mintz and Wilson to increase the generosity of the existing QPP/CPP; and one by Wolfson to make contribution and benefit rates vary with earnings. The internal rate of return (IRR) of each of these proposals is computed taking into consideration inequality in life expectancy, temporal variability of earnings, and interactions with taxation and the different retirement income support programs.

The Effect of Job Loss on Health: Evidence from Biomarkers*

The effect of job loss on health may explain part of the correlation between socio-economic conditions and health. The paper finds no evidence that business closures lead to worse health outcomes, but does find evidence that layoffs lead to diminished health. Accounting for self-reported health conditions prior to the layoff and subjective job loss expectations, it is estimated that a layoff could increase annual mortality rates by close to 10%.

Reforming Old Age Security: Effects and Alternatives*

The postponement from 65 to 67 of the federal old-age pension eligibility age will increase net federal revenues by 7.1 billion dollars (in constant 2014 dollars) per year by 2030, but reduce net provincial revenues by 638 million dollars. With constant labour and savings behaviour, this should also raise poverty (low income) rates from 6% to 17% for those aged 65 and 66 years group, and would be most harmful to low-income seniors and to women. Alternative reforms could achieve similar public finance objectives without such large impacts on poverty rates among seniors.

Projections de l'état de santé de la population québécoise et impacts sur le risque de longévité d'un régime de retraite à prestations déterminées*

The use of COMPAS’s microsimulation techniques allows to study the possible impact of technological progress on population longevity and on the longevity risks incurred by pension plans. The funding ratio for a stylized defined-benefit pension plan could lie between 0.24 and 0.74 in 2050 according to the technological progress scenarios analyzed in this paper, indicating that such plans could run into a considerable funding deficit.

Longévité différentielle et redistribution : enjeux théoriques et empiriques*

Three reasons support the redistribution of resources towards agents with lower longevity: aversion to intertemporal inequality, aversion to the risk of death, and compensation for features for which agents cannot be held responsible. This article analyzes the implications of the existence of strong differences in longevity for the design of public policies, particularly those related to retirement, which usually redistribute resources from agents with short lives towards agents with longer lives.

Individual Survival Curves Comparing Subjective and Observed Mortality Risks*

This paper’s estimation of survival curves leads to estimates of remaining life expectancy for various American population groups as well as to expectations of joint survival and widowhood by household. Subgroups such as blacks, more educated respondents, smokers and respondents from younger cohorts are in general over-optimistic regarding their survival prospects.

Effets des tendances à long-terme de l’obésité sur l’utilisation de soins de santé au Québec

Using a dynamic microsimulation model to project health and obesity prevalence in the Québec population indicates that a counterfactual elimination of obesity would reduce (annually and over the 2010-2050 period) by 864,055 the number of short-term hospitalization nights and by 665,000 the number of consultations with general practitioners and specialists, but would also lead to a significant increase in the number of insititutionalized individuals.

Does Retirement Make you Happy? A Simultaneous Equations Approach*

Accounting for the joint determination of retirement, income, depression, and life satisfaction, it is found that retirement reduces the probability of depression and increases life satisfaction, but that income does not affect much depression or life satisfaction, once other factors are accounted for. Household wealth, being married, and educational attainment increase life satisfaction and reduce the probability of depression; the opposite is true for difficulties with activities of daily living.

COMPAS: Un modèle de microsimulation santé pour le Québec

This report describes the design and structure of COMPAS, a dynamic microsimulation model that projects the evolution of health status (including mortality) of a representative sample of Quebecers throughout their life cycle and the associated use of medical resources in connection with this health status. The model can be used to analyze a single cohort over time, or the entire population as it evolves with new entrants.

An economic analysis of proposals to improve coverage of longevity risk*

Simulation methods are used to analyze the impacts of recently proposed reforms to cover longevity risk: a key proposal of the D’Amours committee (the longevity pension); a proposal by Mintz and Wilson to increase the generosity of the existing QPP/CPP; and one by Wolfson to make contribution and benefit rates vary with earnings. The internal rate of return (IRR) of each of these proposals is computed taking into consideration inequality in life expectancy, temporal variability of earnings, and interactions with taxation and the different retirement income support programs.

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